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Empirical analysis of the determinants of the non-performing loans in Azerbaijan

This paper aims to identify the factors influencing non-performing loans (NPLs) within the Azerbaijani banking sector. The study focuses on both macroeconomic and bank-specific variables as determinants of NPLs in six prominent commercial banks in Azerbaijan: Pasha Bank, Access Bank, Bank Republic, International Bank of Azerbaijan, Kapital Bank, and Unibank. The period of analysis spans from 2015 to 2021, with data obtained from publicly available reports of the selected banks. The research questions revolve around the effects of macroeconomic variables (GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, real interest rate, inflation rate, and public debt) and bank-specific variables (return on assets, capital adequacy ratio, income diversification, and total assets) on NPLs. The findings of this study indicate that return on assets (ROA) has a significant negative impact on non-performing loans (NPLs) within the Azerbaijani banking sector along with the inflation rate and unemployment rate. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that a substantial portion of the variability in NPLs across banks can be aributed to differences between the banks themselves. This suggests that each bank has unique characteristics, policies, or practices that significantly influence its NPL ratio. Policymakers, regulators, and stakeholders in the banking industry should consider these bank-specific contexts when assessing and comparing NPL ratios.